Forecasting Cellular Mobile Traffic: An Econometric Approach

Document type: Conference Papers
Peer reviewed: Yes
Author(s): Åke Arvidsson, Anders Hederstierna, Stefan Hellmer
Title: Forecasting Cellular Mobile Traffic: An Econometric Approach
Conference name: International Teletraffic Congress
Year: 2006
City: Beijing
Organization: Blekinge Institute of Technology
Department: School of Management (Sektionen för management)
School of Management S- 371 79 Karlskrona
+46 455 38 50 00
http://www.bth.se/mam/
Authors e-mail: ake.arvidsson@ericsson.com, ahe@bth.se, she@bth.se
Language: English
Abstract: We consider the problem of explaining and forecasting the volume of cellular mobile traffic in a long-term perspective. To this end, we create a model of a market with both economic and non-economic variables, viz. the state of the economy, the current price level and the penetration effect on the market in question. We measure these variables by using publicly available data and by applying income theories and by combining theories of demand and technology diffusion. Applying the model to three markets, viz. China, Italy and Sweden, we show that it performs very well in explaining and predicting the volume of cellular mobile traffic. Noting the qualitative differences between these markets, we conclude that the model has some universality in that the results are comparable for all of them
Subject: Economics\Macro Economics
Telecommunications\General
Business Administration\International Business
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