Simple and Accurate Forecasting of the Market for Cellular Mobile Services
| Document type: | Bookchapters |
|---|---|
| Peer reviewed: | Yes |
| Author(s): | Åke Arvidsson, Anders Hederstierna, Stefan Hellmer |
| Title: | Simple and Accurate Forecasting of the Market for Cellular Mobile Services |
| Translated title: | Enkel och korrekt prognosticering av marknaden för mobila tjänster |
| Book: | Managing Traffic Performance in Converged Networks |
| Year: | 2007 |
| Volume: | 4516/2007 |
| ISBN: | 978-3-540-72989-1 |
| Publisher: | Springer |
| City: | Berlin |
| URI/DOI: | 10.1007/978-3-540-72990-7 |
| Organization: | Blekinge Institute of Technology |
| Department: | School of Management (Sektionen för management) School of Management S- 371 79 Karlskrona +46 455 38 50 00 http://www.bth.se/mam/ |
| Authors e-mail: | ake.arvidsson@ericsson.com, ahe@bth.se, she@bth.se |
| Language: | English |
| Abstract: | We consider the problems of explaining and forecasting the penetration and the traffic in cellular mobile networks. To this end, we create two regression models, viz. one to predict the penetration from service charges and network effects and another one to predict the traffic from service charges and diffusion and adoption effects. The results of the models can also be combined to compute the likely evolutions of essential characteristics such as Minutes of Use (MoU), Average Revenue per User (ARPU) and total revenue. Applying the models to 26 markets throughout the world we show that they perform very well. Noting the significant qualitative differences between these markets, we conclude that the model has some universality in that the results are comparable for all of them. |
| Summary in Swedish: | En ekonometrisk modell för att förklara och göra prognoser på penetrationen och trafiken i mobila nätverk. Modellen testas på data från 26 olika marknader över hela världen och uppvisar god prognosförmåga och viss generalitet. Nyckelord: mobila nätverk, marknadspenetration, ekonometrisk metod |
| Subject: | Computer Science\Networks and Communications Economics\Macro Economics Business Administration\Marketing |
| Keywords: | mobile networks, market penetration, econometric method |
| Note: | Springer Lecture Notes in Computer Science. |
