Simple and Accurate Forecasting of the Market for Cellular Mobile Services

Document type: Bookchapters
Peer reviewed: Yes
Author(s): Åke Arvidsson, Anders Hederstierna, Stefan Hellmer
Title: Simple and Accurate Forecasting of the Market for Cellular Mobile Services
Translated title: Enkel och korrekt prognosticering av marknaden för mobila tjänster
Book: Managing Traffic Performance in Converged Networks
Year: 2007
Volume: 4516/2007
ISBN: 978-3-540-72989-1
Publisher: Springer
City: Berlin
URI/DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-72990-7
Organization: Blekinge Institute of Technology
Department: School of Management (Sektionen för management)
School of Management S- 371 79 Karlskrona
+46 455 38 50 00
Authors e-mail:,,
Language: English
Abstract: We consider the problems of explaining and forecasting the penetration and the traffic in cellular mobile networks. To this end, we create two regression models, viz. one to predict the penetration from service charges and network effects and another one to predict the traffic from service charges and diffusion and adoption effects. The results of the models can also be combined to compute the likely evolutions of essential characteristics such as Minutes of Use (MoU), Average Revenue per User (ARPU) and total revenue. Applying the models to 26 markets throughout the world we show that they perform very well. Noting the significant qualitative differences between these markets, we conclude that the model has some universality in that the results are comparable for all of them.
Summary in Swedish: En ekonometrisk modell för att förklara och göra prognoser på penetrationen och trafiken i mobila nätverk. Modellen testas på data från 26 olika marknader över hela världen och uppvisar god prognosförmåga och viss generalitet. Nyckelord: mobila nätverk, marknadspenetration, ekonometrisk metod
Subject: Computer Science\Networks and Communications
Economics\Macro Economics
Business Administration\Marketing
Keywords: mobile networks, market penetration, econometric method
Note: Springer Lecture Notes in Computer Science.