2025-26: Fossil free shipping by 2035
This 1-year pre-study was funded by Lighthouse in Sweden, managed by IVL, and conducted in partnership with the University of Gothenburg, the Wallenius/Soya group, and Gotland tech. It aimed to analyse how maritime transport can transition to fossil-free and sustainable operations when (hypothetically) access to fossil fuels is cut off in 2035. The starting point for the project is the belief that humans are capable and quick to adapt when they truly want or need to.
WP1. The Situation in 2035. The situation in 2035 was analysed in two cases: global shipping and shipping to and from Sweden. Different scenarios will be discussed, including the types of shipping that remain, the amount of fuel required, the energy efficiency improvements achieved, and so on.
WP2 (led by Sven Borén). Backcasting. A backcasting exercise was conducted to analyse what actions are needed from now until 2035 in order to reach a situation where maritime transport can operate without fossil fuels, as described in the various scenarios in WP1.
WP3. Formulation of the main (research) study. This preliminary study will present initial results and define the scope and structure of the main study.
The discussions at the workshop (further described in the news section Opens in new window.) gave important input to this pre-study and to the design of the main study (see chapter 6). The basic assumption (of a stop to fossil fuels by 2035) requires an open mindset and thinking beyond conventional scenarios and prognoses. From this perspective, the workshop was successful, with fruitful discussions on the topics listed above. The workshop highlighted several challenges to reach the main objective of the prestudy. Of course, the increase in the production of non-fossil fuels over the period is a major challenge, not least because of limitations in electricity production, but also because of changes in geopolitics and lifestyles. Other technical challenges involve the capacity and potential to develop new technologies and to rebuild ships where the shipyards’ capacity may be an issue. Several of the challenges were also framed as opportunities. A renewable energy system has obvious climate and environmental benefits. The change may lead to beneficial lifestyle changes and opportunities for new businesses. On the influence of transport work produced by shipping, the workshop participants expected a decrease in transport due to (1) no transportation of fossil fuels, (2) regional production of renewable fuels, and (3) changes in consumption and production due to higher transport costs. The solutions to reach the objective discussed at the workshop comprised both regulatory and technical suggestions. To put policy instruments in place to drive the transition swiftly was seen as fundamental. The importance of ramping up renewable fuel production and accelerating work on energy efficiency was also highlighted. Finally, the workshop participants created initial roadmaps that clearly stated that decisions for the transition must be taken swiftly by global, regional, and national politicians, accompanied by powerful incentives and regulations that support the transition. 23 (35) Lighthouse May 2026 The results highlight that the present topics should be studied across several disciplines, covering technology development, energy system analysis, transport economics, governance, and behaviour. Furthermore, although there were objections about the possibility to reach the objective, (e.g. regarding renewable fuel production capacity, shipyard capacity, and political competence) there were in general very constructive discussions at the workshop.
The report of the study is available at https://lighthouse.nu/images/Rapporter/FS51_2025_Fossilstopp_2035.pdf