2026: No more fossil fuels from 2035

The pre-study analysed renewable fuel availability, technological options and changes in transport patterns, and combined system-level analysis with stakeholder insights to identify feasible transition pathways. Shipping is currently almost entirely dependent on fossil fuels and faces structural challenges in decarbonisation, including long vessel lifetimes and limited suitability of battery-electric solutions for long-distance transport. While biofuels may enable short-term reductions, sustainable biomass is scarce and competed for across sectors. Hydrogen-based electrofuels offer long-term potential but require major expansion of renewable electricity and infrastructure. The transition will therefore likely depend on a combination of renewable fuels alongside significant efficiency improvements. It may also lead to changes in global trade patterns, including slower shipping, reduced transport demand and increased regionalisation of production. A central element of the study was a stakeholder workshop using a World Café format, involving more than thirty participants from industry, authorities and research. The workshop explored challenges, opportunities, solutions, and initial roadmaps for the transition. Key challenges identified include the rapid scaling up of renewable energy systems, infrastructure constraints, and the complexity of transforming multiple sectors simultaneously. Participants also highlighted geopolitical uncertainties, limited shipyard capacity for retrofitting, and the importance of behavioural change and reduced energy demand. At the same time, the transition was seen as an opportunity to drive innovation in fuels, vessel technologies and logistics, and to strengthen supply chain resilience through greater efficiency and circularity. Strong international cooperation and coordinated governance were identified as critical enablers. Proposed solutions included early and decisive policy measures such as carbon pricing and long-term regulatory frameworks, alongside technological developments such as improved ship design, operational optimisation, retrofitting, and new propulsion systems. Wind-assisted propulsion, batteries for short-distance shipping, and renewable fuels were highlighted as key components. Collaboration across the maritime value chain and increased societal acceptance of higher transport costs were also considered essential. An initial roadmap was proposed to include strong incentives and regulatory frameworks at global, regional and national political and other decision-making levels to provide opportunities/directives to shipping stakeholders to initiate and sustain the transition. Overall, fossil-free shipping by 2035 is highly challenging but potentially achievable with strong political commitment, rapid technological deployment and systemic change.

The report can be read at https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:trafikverket:diva-22165